Jan Husdal

Is Your Supply Chain Vulnerable?

Recently I came across a report on Supply Chain Vulnerability published as early as 2002 by the Cranfield University School of Management on behalf of the Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions, the Department of Trade and Industry and the Home Office.

The key findings from this research report into supply chain vulnerabilities are:
• Supply chain vulnerability is an important business issue.
• Little research has been undertaken into supply chain vulnerabilities.
• Awareness of the subject is poor.
• There is a need for a methodology for managing supply chain vulnerability.

Transport Network Vulnerability - which metrics should we use?

Paper presented at the NECTAR Cluster 1 Seminar, Molde, Norway, 12-13 May 2006.

Transport network vulnerability is a relatively new field of research and to this date no commonly agreed definition or quantifiable expression of what vulnerability is exists within the academic community.

The follwing paper presents a review of road network vulnerability, seeking to synthesize different terminologies and metrics, among which: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, flexibility, robustness, and adaptive capacity.

The vulnerability of road networks in a cost-benefit perspective

Paper presented at TRB2005, the Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2005, Washington DC, USA, 9-13 January 2005.

A reliable transportation network represents a net benefit to society, and conversely, a vulnerable network represents a net cost to society. Hence, vulnerability ought to be an important parameter for decision-support in cost-benefit analyses, by seeking to establish a link between the terms reliability and vulnerability vis-à-vis costs and benefits. A multi-criteria analysis approach is suggested as an appropriate methodology for analyzing the monetary and non-monetary effects of vulnerability.

Looking beyond the science of vulnerability assessments, this paper discusses some of the network attributes that influence the vulnerability of transportation networks, influences that can be described as structure-related, nature-related or traffic-related attributes. The influences of the individual attributes are then examined as possible candidates for measuring of the vulnerability of the transportation network.

Reliability and vulnerability versus costs and benefits

Paper presented at ETC2004, the European Transport Conference 2004, Strasbourg, France, 4-6 October 2004.

Taking up the invitation of Berdica to bring out and recognise the vulnerability in the road transport system as a meeting point for all the different strands of transport reliability research and other issues, the focal point of this paper is to look at a road network from a reliability and vulnerability perspective and to link this analysis to cost-benefit decisions.

Looking beyond the science of vulnerability assessments, this paper discusses some of the network attributes that influence the vulnerability of transport networks, influences that can be described as structure-related, nature-related or traffic-related attributes. The paper introduces vulnerability as a parameter for decision-support in cost-benefit analyses, by seeking to establish a link between the terms reliability and vulnerability vis-a-vis costs and benefits.

Keywords: reliability, vulnerability, cost-benefit

Reliability and vulnerability versus costs and benefits

Paper presented at INSTR2004, the Second International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability, Christchurch and Queenstown, NZ, 20-24 August 2004

Issues of reliability and vulnerability are mormally not considered a matter of evaluation in traditional cost-benefit analyses. Consequently, traditional cost-benefit analyses are lacking decision variables that may be important.

This paper looks beyond the abstract science of vulnerability assessments, and discusses some of the factual influences and network attributes that contribute to the vulnerability of transport networks. The influences of the individual attributes are then examined as a measure of the vulnerability of a transport network. Although reliability can be defined by absolute numbers, vulnerability, by its very nature can not. The paper further outlines a framework for developing a methodology that to incorporate reliability and vulnerability as parameters for decision-support in a cost-benefit analysis. In doing so, this paper seeks to establish a link between the terms reliability/vulnerability and cost/benefit and seeks to describe reliability and vulnerability in terms of cost and benefit. Cost-benefit evaluations are part of many decision making processes, and it is argued that vulnerability assessments likewise should play an important role as input to these processes.

Keywords: reliability, vulnerability, cost-benefit, transport network

Why reliability and vulnerability should be an issue in road development projects

Few will question that the sender, the recipient, the freight hauler or society in general, experience additional costs when goods or persons cannot reach their destinations in time or space. Consequently, it should be obvious that a reliable transportation network represents a benefit to society. Equally, a vulnerable network would represent a net cost to society. Why then, is the reliability, or conversely, the vulnerability, of the transportation network not a matter of evaluation in traditional cost-benefit analyses?

This is an English translation of an article that was first published in Norwegian in "Samferdsel", issue 4/2004:

Husdal, J. (2004). Pålitelighet og sårbarhet - et ikke-tema i nyttekostanalyser? Samferdsel 2/2004, s. 28-30. Reliability and vulnerability - a non-issue in cost-benefit analyses? Samferdsel (Journal of the Norwegian Institute for Transport Economics, TØI), 2/2004, pp. 28-30.

A philosophical essay on transportation vulnerability

In essence, three fields or subjects are brought together in this research: engineering (reliability and vulnerability), economics (cost and benefits) and politics (decision making). The idea behind the research is to blend statistical, economical and political arguments in order to achieve a novel and unifying framework for decision making within transportation planning.

By adding reliability and vulnerability to the traditional equations of costs and benefits it is hoped that transportation planners and professionals will not only consider economical arguments, but also dare to take on political statements that may be in opposition to strictly factual costs and benefits. A research subject that sees its aim as decision support, balancing different sides and arguments, rather than holding one objective truth, has much in common with the explorative nature of Lakatosian research programmes. At the same time it has no overall common assumptions or paradigms it needs to adhere to in Kuhnian sense: Reliability analysis is deductive in nature; vulnerability adds a Bayesian vagueness to reliability. Costs and benefits are firmly set in the utilitarian thought of classic economics, implying society as the sum of rational individuals. Combining these diverging views is challenging, but not insurmountable, if following Giordano Bruno's ideas of pictorial concepts, rather than developing intricate formulae.