PhD in Logistics
Reliability and vulnerability as a factor in transport economics - the reliability of road networks in a cost-benefit perspective
This PhD research is currently carried out at Molde University College and aims at investigating the most typical factors that affect the reliability and vulnerability of the transportation infrastructure how these factors can be approached from a cost-benefit perspective.
Outline
The project shall investigate the parameters that contribute to reliability and vulnerability and how the influence of the individual parameters can be used as a measure of reliability and vulnerability of the transportation network. Furthermore, the project shall seek to establish a link reliability/vulnerability to cost/benefit and seek to describe reliability and vulnerability in terms of cost and benefit and vice versa. Lastly, the project shall show how reliability and vulnerability can be used as a parameter in decision support for locating new businesses or selecting the transportation or logistics strategy with the least uncertainties.
Albeit the methodology and models in this project will be developed on the basis of a road network, it will also be transferable to other transportation sectors, such as air and rail.
Rationale
The reliability or vulnerability of the transportation network is a factor that is only seldom looked at in cost-benefit analyses, especially for new projects. For the most part, saved travel time is what drives the policy of the decision makers, increased reliability is as a rule not a subject for closer evaluation; it is simply taken for granted. By adding reliability and vulnerability to the traditional equations of costs and benefits it is hoped that future transportation planners and professionals will not only consider economical arguments, but also dare to take on political statements that are in opposition to strictly factual costs and benefits. This is possibly only when these statements are backed up by a full evaluation of the factors that make up the reliability and vulnerability of our infrastructure system. Consequently, this research may serve as a model for transportation and community planning that has the reduction of vulnerability as its main objective.
Expected results
The main goals of the project are:
Establish a methodology for aggregating a reliability or vulnerability index for a road network or a location on a road network. Establish the minimum requirements of reliability that pertain to different modes of transport, i.e. persons versus goods, or between different types of goods. Analyse how reliability and vulnerability based cost/benefit-analyses can assist in the decision-making process of transportation planners in both the business and government sector.
Timeline
Starting January 2003, finishing by end of 2008
Publications, research articles and conference presentations
Cost-Benefit Analysis - an essay about valuation problems
This paper introduces vulnerability as an important parameter for decision-support in costbenefit analyses for transportation projects, by seeking to establish a link between the terms reliability and vulnerability vis-à-vis costs and benefits. Vulnerability costs or disruption costs are related to both location on and usage of the transportation network, and methods to explore these costs are suggested.
Transport Network Vulnerability - which metrics should we use?
Paper presented at the NECTAR Cluster 1 Seminar, Molde, Norway, 12-13 May 2006.
Transport network vulnerability is a relatively new field of research and to this date no commonly agreed definition or quantifiable expression of what vulnerability is exists within the academic community.he follwing paper presents a review of road network vulnerability, seeking to synthesize different terminologies and metrics, among which: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, flexibility, robustness, and adaptive capacity.
The vulnerability of road networks in a cost-benefit perspective
Paper presented at TRB2005, the Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2005, Washington DC, USA, 9-13 January 2005.
This paper introduces vulnerability as an important parameter for decision-support in cost-benefit analyses, by seeking to establish a link between the terms reliability and vulnerability vis-à-vis costs and benefits. The paper contends that a reliable transportation network represents a net benefit to society, and conversely, that a vulnerable network represents a net cost to society. A multi-criteria analysis approach is suggested as an appropriate methodology for analyzing the monetary and non-monetary effects of vulnerability.
Flexibility and robustness - reducing risk and uncertainty
Unpublished draft paper. Based on a seminar in decision making under uncertainty at Molde University College, Molde, Norway, 6-10 December 2004.
Any company operating in international markets will face a multitude of risks and uncertainties. Acknowledging these risks and devising a strategy for how to deal with these risks is a prerequisite for survival in today's competitive market. Robustness and flexibility are tools for meeting uncertainty, and robustness and flexibility analysis is a way of supporting decision making when there is uncertainty about the future.
Reliability/vulnerability versus cost/benefit
Paper presented at ETC 2004, the European Transport Conference 2004, Strasbourg, France, 4-6 October 2004.
Looking beyond the science of vulnerability assessments, this paper discusses some of the network attributes that influence the vulnerability of transport networks, influences that can be described as structure-related, nature-related or traffic-related attributes. The paper introduces vulnerability as a parameter for decision-support in cost-benefit analyses, by seeking to establish a link between the terms reliability and vulnerability vis-à-vis costs and benefits.
Reliability and vulnerability versus costs and benefits
Paper presented at the Second International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability (INSTR 2004), Christchurch and Queenstown, NZ, 20-24 August 2004.
This paper describes a PhD research project that is currently carried out in cooperation with the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, which aims at investigating the most typical factors that affect the reliability and vulnerability of the transportation infrastructure and thus establishing a framework for how these factors can be approached from a cost-benefit perspective.
Why reliability and vulnerability should be an issue in road development projects
Published in "Samferdsel" 3/2004.
Few will question that the sender, the recipient, the freight hauler or society in general, experience additional costs when goods or persons cannot reach their destinations in time or space. Consequently, it should be obvious that a reliable transportation network represents a benefit to society. Equally, a vulnerable network would represent a net cost to society. Why then, is the reliability, or conversely, the vulnerability, of the transportation network not a matter of evaluation in traditional cost-benefit analyses?
Transportation Vulnerability - Philosophy of Science
A philosophical essay on approaches to knowledge in researching the reliability and vulnerability of transportation networks in a cost-benefit perspective. In essence, three fields or subjects are brought together, engineering (reliability and vulnerability), economics (cost and benefits) and politics (decision making). The idea behind the research is to blend statistical, economical and political arguments in order to achieve a novel and unifying framework for decision making within transportation planning.
Analyzing the reliability of transportation lifelines
Unpublished draft paper.
Transportation lifelines, such as freeways, interstate highways and railroads are the backbone of modern society's infrastructure, providing the main arteries along which goods and persons can flow freely and easily, thus shaping a region's and a nation's economy. Given their importance, it goes without saying that these lifelines are extremely vulnerable to any form of disruption, be it to natural or technological hazards, or in light of recent events, terrorist attacks. This article presents a research scope on these issues.
If this is of interest to you, and you would like to know more; if you would like to cooperate academically or professionally, please contact me.
